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These positive developments follow in the wake of the earlier announcement by Australian copper miner Discovery Metals that it will be commencing construction on its Boseto copper project within the Kalahari copper belt, with the company's bankable feasibility study (BFS) calling for throughput of some 3mn tpa of copper and silver ore over five years.
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Gem Diamonds has stated that construction at the mine site at Gope will start this year, with diamond production set to commence in 2013 at an initial rate of 100,000 carats per annum aston martin , increasing over time to a 'peak steady state' production of 780,000 carats per annum.
Against this backdrop, we made some upwards revisions to our copper production and export forecasts earlier in the year to reflect this new output from Boseto and we have also now made an upwards revision to our diamond production and export forecasts to take account of Lucara's higher output from the AK06 mine from 2012 onwards and Gem's higher output from 2013 onwards.
Diamonds continue to be the mainstay of Botswanan mining at present, with figures from the Bank of Botswana released in February 2011 showing a 39% increase in diamond exports over 2010, to reach US$3.01bn.
Botswana Still Favoured By BMI
Botswana remains the highest-rated African country in our Business Environment Rankings for Q311, with a score of 66.7 points out of 100. The country has a stable political situation and a well-developed mining sector, backed up by a sound regulatory framework.
Moreover, tax rates remain relatively low on a regional basis and the country has relatively flexible labour regulations, which should also bolster growth. Our positive view on Botswanan mining is shared by the influential Fraser Institute, which has placed Botswana in 14th place (out of 79 jurisdictions) in its Policy Potential index, as contained within its Survey of Mining Companies 2010/11, published in March 2011. Botswana saw an increase in its score to 74, up from 66.5 in the previous year. In terms of current mineral potential (assuming current regulations and land use restrictions), Botswana was ranked 7th out of 79, underlining the substantial mineral base that is ready to be developed in country.
Country Overview
Exploitation of rich mineral reserves, especially diamonds, has been a significant driver of Botswana's economic growth. Diamonds, along with copper and nickel, are major focus areas in metal and mineral exploration, and earn more than three-quarters of the country's export revenues. More recently, coal and uranium have al dodge so emerged as key future revenue generators for the Botswanan mining industry.
The authorities in Gabarone have an impressive track record in garnering the maximum benefit from the production of diamonds, and we expect this trend to continue over the coming decade. Diamonds currently dominate the economy but, with output set to decline over the medium term as reserves dwindle, the government has enacted a number of measures to ensure that revenues are used to aid diversification. For example, a fiscal rule has been adopted which states that mineral revenues must be used to expand the economy's productive base, rather than fund consumption expenditure. Owing to this rule and other initiatives enshrined in successive six-year National Development Plans and the long-term policy Vision 2016, growth in the non-mining sectors is burgeoning.
Industry Forecast
We are positive on the outlook for the Botswanan mining sector over our forecast period to 2015. Diamond output will remain the mainstay of Botswanan mining production, boosted by new projects being planned by both Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond Corporation, however, there are also key mining projects being developed in the copper, uranium and coal sub-sectors, such as Discovery Metals' Boseto project. We believe that the sector can show an average annual growth rate of nearly 10% over the 2011-15 period, with the industry reaching a value in excess of BWP60bn (US$10bn) by 2015.About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior 1086274749 executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry v alfa romeo erticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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